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________________
Mike Lowell:
strong bat, strong glove, World Champion. _______________
Hanley Ramirez Would still look good in a _______________ “
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The Trade that Led to
the 2007 World Championship (Nov-05-07) Boston’s scouts and player
development people got a lot of nice kudos from the media for the role their
home-grown players played in bringing another World Championship to Boston.
Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia,
Jon Papelbon, Jon Lester, Clay Buchholz, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Manny Delcarmen
were all originally signed by Boston and developed in their minor league
system. They are a young group, and we can expect that they will play much
bigger roles in Boston’s future. Overlooked
is that the player development department also played a key role in the trade
that really delivered this particular World Championship. During
the season the performances of Mike Lowell and Josh Beckett were easily among
the best on the team, and then they really sparkled in the crucial
post-season games. Over the three series, Josh Beckett was Boston’s best
starting pitcher (4-0, 1.20 ERA) and probably their post-season MVP. Third
baseman Mike Lowell was not far behind, hitting well in all three series and
specifically being named the MVP of the World Series. Both Beckett
and Lowell came to the Red Sox through a single trade with the Florida
Marlins in November of 2005. It is true that Boston’s superior financial
resources played a significant role in this trade. Florida felt they could
not afford Josh Beckett in his final two arbitration years before free
agency, and they felt they needed to get out from under the expensive final
two years of Lowell’s contract. But it took more than just money to pull off
this deal. The Marlins didn’t just need a trading partner who could afford
Beckett and Lowell. They also needed a team that had good young prospects who
were years away from having the kind of service time that would earn them
even the average major league salary. Boston had
what they were looking for. In their minor league system were two very young
prospects, a talented Dominican shortstop the Red Sox had signed as a
16-year-old back in 2000, and a promising Venezuelan pitcher they had signed
as a 17-year-old in 2001. At the time of the trade Baseball America ranked the two as the second and fourth best
prospects in Boston’s minor league system and the 30th and 40th
best prospects among all the teams. The Marlins targeted the duo, and they
also got two other young minor league pitchers with so-so promise. Those four
minor league kids were the only players that Boston gave up in that trade. Again, it
wasn’t just money that made that deal possible. It was money and a good player development
system. That’s how Boston acquired Beckett and Lowell, the two key players to
their 2007 World Championship. Their player development people have not
gotten the credit they deserve for this, and here is a well deserved tip of
the hat in their direction.
… But in Hindsight,
Would Boston Make that Trade Again? With the
20-20 vision of hindsight, certainly not. The Red Sox would do whatever it
took to restructure the deal without giving the kid shortstop away. But
that’s the risk of a trade where you are giving up young prospects with
unproven potential. If none of the prospects panned out, Florida would end up
feeling a little foolish, but the Marlins could also hit it big and come away
with a Hall of Famer - and it is beginning to look like they did. At first it
looked like the strong pitching prospect Anibal
Sanchez would alone make the trade worthwhile for Florida. Sanchez came up in
June of 2006 and pitched brilliantly the rest of the way, going 10-3 with a
2.83 ERA, including throwing a no-hitter in what was only his 14th
start in the majors. But Sanchez tore his labrum early in 2007 and the
resulting shoulder surgery is a cloud over his future. However, the
Marlins are still smiling because the real diamond in the rough in the trade
was the kid shortstop named Hanley Ramirez. To be clear, Ramirez was always
considered a top prospect, but that is still a long way from emerging as a
solid league regular, much less a potential Hall of Famer. Many players who leave the minors as a top prospect in an
organization, go on to have very mediocre careers. Ten years ago Boston’s top
prospect was pitcher Brian Rose who ended up having a very brief career where
he was 15-23 with a 5.86 ERA. A dozen years ago their top prospect was Donnie
Sadler, who ended up being a utility player who hit .202. Ramirez was
Rookie of the Year in 2006, and got even better in 2007. You may remember I
yelled at this year’s All-Star break, “How the heck is Hanley Ramirez not on
the All-Star team?” Despite what MVP voters will say about Jimmy Rollins,
Ramirez is – right now – the best offensive shortstop in baseball, and he
doesn’t even turn 24 until late December.
In fact, Ramierz’s career
OPS (.889) is also better than Rollins’ 2007
season. Hanley’s
performance raises the interesting question of how soon can we reasonably dub
certain players to be a Hall of Fame talent? Ramirez has 54 win shares in his
two full seasons. Since 1900 there are only ten middle infielders who have
had over 50 win shares in their two best seasons before age 24. Middle Infielders, Win
Shares from Top two Seasons Before Age 24 (1900-2007)
That’s a heck of a list to find yourself on. Alex Rodriguez is a sure Hall of Famer, and
we all know why Vern Stephens is the freak on this list. Vern was a fine player,
but he is rubbing elbows with this group only because he had a trick knee
that kept him out of the military during World War II, and he got to crunch
the depleted pitching corps that masqueraded as major leaguers from 1943-45. Being a Hall
of Fame talent is not the same thing as being a Hall of Famer. Things could
happen along the way, but Hanley Ramirez has an excellent shot at having a
Hall of Fame career. Heck, he might even make the All-Star team. |
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The Diamond Appraised baseball column is dedicated to
Eddie Robinson |
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