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I'm not one of those people who refuses to pay for anything on the Web, and so I pay for a few things. But if I could pay for just one thing, it would probably be Craig Wright’s baseball writings.

Rob Neyer
Senior Baseball Writer
ESPN.com

 

________________

 

 

Sammy Sosa - 2005

This sample includes materials from two back-to-back columns, with the second responding to mail on the first column.

 

Performance Enhancing Drugs, the Hall, and the Record Books

 

Whether you are a Hall of Famer or not is a matter of a vote reflecting the perspectives of those who have a ballot. Right now there are a lot of Hall of Fame voters who are dead set against voting for players linked to using PEDs. Hal Bodley has a Hall of Fame vote, and he has flatly written: “I will never give a player, no matter how great, my vote for the Hall of Fame who’s been connected to steroid use. I cannot allow the shrine in Cooperstown to be tarnished by their presence.”

 

That seems very unhelpful and overly pompous. I just can’t see it that way. I think PEDs hurt the game, and I am glad we are taking action to reduce their presence and impact on the game, but I don’t see the sense of making these indiscretions an overwhelming factor in whether someone is a Hall of Famer or not.

 

For me, it is a stain on the whole era. As Chad Curtis said in a recent interview, it was accepted into the culture of that day. If baseball was so intent on turning its head the other way that even a guy like Andy Pettitte succumbed to the temptation, who can we really be sure was 100% clean? It was so accepted as a “legitimate” way to cheat that Curtis thought some players honestly didn’t even realize it was illegal, just like so many players a few decades ago had trouble comprehending that their use of amphetamines was illegal. Baseball didn’t seem to care, and this wasn’t like using cocaine, something you took for your own pleasure and which hurt your career and your team. With PEDs you were trying to be a better competitor. Even those who resisted, understood very well the temptation, the motivation.

 

Curt Schilling says he’d like to see all 104 of the players who tested positive in 2003 named, and that “… if you don’t do that, then the other 600-700 players are going to be guilty by association, forever.” Besides being a betrayal of the promise made to those 104 players, that’s ridiculously simplistic and incapable of erasing the “guilt by association” for everyone in that era. Some players were recently retired and not tested in 2003, most notably Mark McGwire. The players knew about the testing in 2003, and just to be on the safe side there may have been some PED users who cycled off their drugs of choice for most if not all that year. And the users of certain steroids, such as the Primobolan used by Alex Rodriguez, would not likely have tested positive unless their random test dates coincided with the smaller window of detection associated with that mild steroid. And of course, this 2003 testing was for steroids and not other PEDs banned in baseball’s drug policy such as HGH and amphetamines. Believe me, you’ve got a whole lot more than 104 players who were “cheating” with PEDs in this era. I personally would not be surprised if when you count even the smallest infractions, we are really talking about five times that number.

 

I wholly understand the argument of refusing to take at face value many of the statistical accomplishments in this era relative to players from other eras. But if you ever wish to make sense of statistical measures across eras, you always have to put them in context. This is just another context. That at least is the way I look at it.


 

And all of that is an incredibly different discussion than whether someone deserves to be in the Hall of Fame or not. Barry Bonds’ argument for the HOF has never been about hitting more homers than Hank Aaron. It has been about being of one of the most valuable players of his generation, both before and after his use of PEDs.

 

For me, the link to PEDs is a minor part of any player’s story from that era. It does indeed reflect negatively on a player, but it also reflects on advances in drugs and chemistry, cultural attitudes, and it reflects hugely on what MLB and the players’ union were doing – or more accurately, not doing – to protect players who were not willing to compete through the use of PEDs. Unless someone starts pushing someone like Bret Boone for the Hall of Fame – which ain’t gonna happen – I can’t conceive of anyone from this era going into the Hall of Fame who would not have gotten there on his own natural ability if playing in a PEDs-free league.

 

The use of PEDs before MLB and the Union really started cracking down on it, is something I can live with on a Hall of Famer’s resume. In fact, I think it is possible to screw up that way even today, and still do it in a manner in which one could end up with a net contribution worthy of the Hall of Fame. Indeed, isn’t that in the nature of the game’s present drug policy? No one is banned right away. They get a healthy suspension and a second chance. (They actually get a third and a fourth chance, but the length of those suspensions would make it hard to make the Hall, and a second incident reduces the chance of mitigating arguments that might hold open the door of the Hall.)

 

When a Hal Bodley talks about this Hall of Fame issue from the standpoint of Cooperstown being a “shrine” that should not be “tarnished by their presence” – referring to players linked to PEDs, he has turned it into a moral issue. But I do not think he has thought through the implications of this kind of moral issue being a deciding issue on who should be a Hall of Famer.

 

We have this immensely talented slugger belting a lot of homers and along the way he rationalizes his way into using a performance enhancing drug that is not only illegal but dangerous to his health. In explaining his use of the drug, one might argue that “a lot of players were doing it” and baseball wasn’t really doing anything to discourage it. He hasn’t expanded his troubles by possibly committing perjury. So who are we talking about here? Is this player:

 

A) Hank Aaron

B) Willie Mays

C) Alex Rodriguez

D) Willie Stargell

E) All of the above

 

The answer is (E), all of the above. And if Hal Bodley feels this is a moral issue that should decide who is and is not a Hall of Famer, let him call for the removal of Aaron, Mays, Stargell, and many others, including Hall of Famers Johnny Bench and Mike Schmidt.

 

The so-called “moral” difference between A-Rod and the other three is that when Aaron, Mays, and Stargell played, the options among PEDs were limited to drugs that had a smaller impact on player performance. That’s pretty much it.

 

Look, amphetamines are performance enhancing drugs, a short-term stimulant that gives a jump to your energy and alertness while staving off fatigue. It is in fact banned under baseball’s drug policy just as steroids and HGH are. And if baseball is really concerned about the health dangers from youngsters imitating the big leaguers, Dr. Charles Yesalis, a professor of Health and Human Development at Penn State University, says that abuse of amphetamines is "way, way more dangerous" than the abuse of anabolic steroids. I play racquetball with a pharmacist and asked him about that, and he said, “Short-term that is certainly true, and it is much easier to dangerously abuse amphetamines than anabolic steroids.”

 

Amphetamines are intensely regulated, and have been for decades longer than anabolic steroids. Beginning in 1956, it was illegal to distribute amphetamines without a medical prescription, although it was still legal to possess and use them if you found a way to obtain them without a prescription. That loophole was closed in November of 1970 when amphetamines were classified as schedule 2 drugs, and it became illegal to even have possession of them without a valid medical prescription.

 

Our current baseball commissioner, Bud Selig, remembers that the first time he ever heard about amphetamines was in the clubhouse of the 1958 Milwaukee Braves. Sportswriter Bruce Jenkins cited “respected baseball sources” who confirmed to Jenkins that Henry Aaron “liked” and used amphetamines.

 

There are probably more stories about Willie Mays’ dedication to the use of amphetamines than any other player of his generation. He eventually gave up the pill form in favor of an especially potent form of liquid amphetamine called “Big Red.”

 

Amphetamine use was rampant in the major leagues in the 1960s. In 1969 Jim Bouton likened its storage and distribution in clubhouses to that of a jar of hard candy. Although amphetamine use went into a decline after the law changed in the winter of 1970, it still had a very significant presence. Mike Schmidt, whose career began in 1972, has written about amphetamines being "widely available in major-league clubhouses" during his career, and "to be under no illusion that the [prescribed] name on the bottle coincided with the name of the player taking them ..."

 

Four-time batting champion Bill Madlock was implicated in the illegal use of amphetamines by testimony given under oath in the drug trial of another player. Players like Carl Yastrzemski, Johnny Bench, Pete Rose, and Mike Schmidt all have been mentioned as players who at least "experimented" with amphetamines during their career. Rose also testified in the trial of a doctor prosecuted for writing illegal amphetamine prescriptions for Rose and other members of the World Champion Phillies.

 

Anyone here believe that without the betting scandal that Pete Rose would be in the Hall of Fame today? Sure he would. The moral issue of his illegal involvement with amphetamines, a performance enhancing drug, would not have been held against him any more than it was with these other star players.

 

An interesting trivia question … Who are the only two Hall of Famers who have had a teammate testify under oath in open court, that their Hall of Fame teammate possessed unprescribed controlled substances that were performance enhancing drugs?

 

That would be Willie Mays and Willie Stargell. In the cocaine trials of 1985, Dale Berra, who first became Stargell’s teammate in 1977, mentioned in his testimony that he had gotten amphetamines from Willie Stargell. John Milner, who was Willie Mays' teammate in 1972-73, testified vaguely about getting amphetamines from Mays and spoke specifically about the red juice amphetamine concoction that Mays used, and which he kept openly in his locker.

 

Yes, it is messier to deal with the PEDs factor today because of the greater influence on performance that is possible with the modern drugs, but it would be hypocritical to get all sanctimonious and try to turn these Hall of Fame judgments into a black and white moral issue.

 

I’ve been around major league ballplayers and I’ve competed with them in various sports. They could be easy going if they felt it wasn’t really a competitive contest, but in the sports where our skill levels tended to be more even, it was always interesting to see how many had a competitive strain come out in their personalities that I rarely saw in folks from other walks of life.

 


Simply put, these are competitive people. Some will look for any edge, and I don’t doubt that a lot of them will do something they normally would never do, if they felt that was what their opponents were doing or being allowed to do. I don’t think the players of this recent era are any less moral than the players of the 1980s, 1970s, or 1960s. And the presence of the best of them in the Hall of Fame is not going to tarnish the Hall anymore than the presence of morally ambiguous stars of those earlier eras. And even “morally ambiguous” is way too harsh. Hank Aaron’s a good man. Willie Stargell’s a good man. We are largely talking about very human mistakes, moral stumbles being made in a room full of marbles. The Hall of Fame is for ballplayers, not perfect saints.

 

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From the mailbag: … I get that the “moral” issue of using amphetamines illegally is not different from using steroids illegally, but you are missing the point that many of us who oppose Mark McGwire and company as Hall of Famers are not objecting to the moral taint but the taint on their records. We cannot trust them and put them in the Hall.

 

Having established that it is not a moral issue for you, I assume the “them” you do not trust is not the players in this instance, but their records, and that leaves you saying that their records are what we put in the Hall and not the players. While I’m not sure you specifically meant to say that, I know that is the way some folks look at it, and I imagine this is the source of the anguish over performance enhancing drugs that comes from a large segment of fans.

 

That’s why some folks want to slap asterisks on certain records, and why some write me letters asking about ways to “fix” the records. And some even talk about erasing whole player seasons from the record book. I’m not joking. One of the questions during Alex Rodriguez’s recent press conference asked A-Rod his thoughts on “whether his stats from 2001-2003 should be erased.”

 

Let’s not lose sight of the fact that the “stats,” the “records,” have the very simple purpose of recording events that happened. The interpretation of what they mean is left to us. If you “erase” them or try to “fix” them, you lose the truth of what they are, and that would be a huge mistake. 

 

The greatest act of corruption in the game's history is the throwing of the 1919 World Series by several members of the White Sox. This did not change the records associated with that series. They are exactly what they are. The Cincinnati Reds won the Series. Joe Jackson hit .375 with exactly the same certitude that the honest Eddie Collins hit .226. There are no asterisks; no one’s record was erased. What does change is the life we breathe into these lifeless lines of ink with our understanding of their context and meaning.

 

Whether you believe Shoeless Joe gave his best or not, we have his testimony under oath that (A) he agreed to take part in throwing the World Series, (B) that he received $5,000 for his involvement, and (C) that he complained to ring leader Chick Gandil that the amount was less than he was promised. We also know that in the games the Sox were trying to lose, that Jackson performed poorly both at the plate and in the field, and that he played brilliantly in the three games they were trying to win. And many decades after those statistics were recorded, our sense of context and understanding got an additional boost when we learned that Eddie Collins and the other honest Sox players were relying on a scouting report of the Reds’ pitchers that had been prepared by one of the conspirators (Fred McMullin).


 

But none of that is relevant to the statistics themselves. It doesn’t change the events that happened and are recorded. Again, the change is in the meaning we take from them. This is an important element in the evaluation of many baseball records, and not surprisingly a factor in whom the voters determine is a Hall of Famer. For example, before the recent election of Jim Rice there was considerable discussion about how we should interpret the records of his career. It was not an argument over steroids but about the impact of Fenway Park relative to the other parks of his era. Some wanted to take his statistics at face value. Some felt a significant park adjustment was called for, and some saw it somewhere in between.

 

And if it is not ballparks, we routinely add context and meaning for things like absence due to military service, or for shifts in the balance of pitching versus hitting in different eras due to changes in equipment or rules – and perhaps now for the prevalence of significant performance enhancing drugs.

 

From the mailbag: [quoting from] Arthur De Vaney … in his study on home runs in baseball;

 

There is no evidence that steroid use has altered home run hitting and those who argue otherwise are profoundly ignorant of the statistics of home runs, the physics of basball, and of the physiological effects of steroids.

 

That seems pretty far-fetched … . Is Arthur De Vaney nuts or maybe he just requires a higher level of scientific certainty to agree to a conclusion? What are your thoughts?

  

My first thought is that this kind of material is important to address. If we are going to try to give a sense of context to baseball events that have been recorded under the possible influence of PEDs, it certainly is worth trying to better understand the extent of that influence.

 

Before getting into the issue itself, let me quickly answer your direct questions on Mr. De Vaney, a retired professor from the University of California in Irvine, associated with their Department of Economics and Institute for Mathematical Behavioral Sciences. De Vaney is not nuts but suffers from what I would decscribe as “scientific arrogance,” which is what happens when you lose the humility that should be learned from the cold hard truth that reality is so complex that it is remarkably easy to lose grasp of reality while in the midst of analysis.

 

In analysis we try to isolate things and relationships in a way that makes them easier to study and hopefully helps advance our ability to understand things, but it is, in itself, a very artificial and incomplete view, and thus vulnerable to mistaken conclusions and even gross errors. The most important counterbalance to an analytic perspective is a synthetic one.

 

Synthesis has its own weaknesses, as it can be based on no more than our understanding of the whole – which is, in itself, limited and incomplete. But for all its own flaws, the synthetic perspective is the most important test of what we learn from the extremely artificial world of analysis. Synthesis is our attempt to evaluate those results against the background of our current understanding of – well, everything we connect as relevant to the question at hand. It is your sense of synthesis that rightly causes you to question De Vany’s conclusion and even has you wondering if he is “nuts.”

 


And for the record, even within the high-powered statistical analytic world of De Vaney, his paper on home runs went over like a lead balloon, and the validity of his conclusions were refuted in August 2007 in a paper by John DiNardo and Jason Winfree of the University of Michigan.

 

But De Vaney is not the only one to dispute the impact of steroids on baseball performance. A bit more than a year ago, The New York Times did a baseball article titled “A Voice of Skepticism on the Impact of Steroids” and it said in part:

 

“… many credible statistical analysts are similarly skeptical about how much steroids and other drugs may have distorted modern ballplayers’ records. Regarding Bonds, for example, they note that, yes, his peak home run rates came at 36 through 39 years old, when most players are in decline. Then again, another slugger three decades before enjoyed almost the same late-30s surge: a fellow named Hank Aaron."

 

Folks that believe something like that are doing an analysis that produces a chart that looks something like this, comparing the change in their relative HR% (HR/AB) at that point in their career. (By “relative” I mean their HR% relative to the average non-pitcher in their league):

 

Hank Aaron

HR/AB

Barry Bonds

HR/AB

Thru age 35

222%

Thru age 35

245%

Ages 36-39

355%

Ages 36-39

385%

Difference

+133%

Difference

+140%

That does look remarkably similar doesn’t it? But remember what I said about the artificial nature of analysis sometimes failing to capture the complexity of reality and leading us astray. There are two big factors being overlooked in that analysis, and it results in an illusion that the surge in the performance of Bonds at ages 36-39 is “almost the same” as the late-30s surge of Hank Aaron.

             

1)    Hitting for power does not happen independent of other batting skills, and players can and often do make changes in their approach as hitters where they sacrifice some of their ability to hit for average to hit for more power, and vice versa. Because Hank Aaron broke Babe Ruth’s career home run record, we tend to think that he always emphasized power-hitting. But really, Aaron passed the Babe in part because of his very long and healthy career. While Aaron hit a good number of homers in his early years while with Milwaukee, this was also a period in his career where he put a strong emphasis on hitting for a good batting average as well. When the Braves moved to Atlanta and into a much better HR park, Aaron wisely began swinging for more home runs at the expense of his batting average. But Barry Bonds made no such shift in juicing his HR rate. In fact, he actually became a much better hitter for batting average during his remarkable power surge.

 

2)    Aaron's late surge in home runs relative to his prior career is also a basic reflection of the impact of the change in his home park factor that took place at age 32 when he moved from a pitcher’s park in Milwaukee to a hitter’s park in Atlanta. His leap forward in relative HR% is far less impressive when you compare it to just his earlier years in Atlanta. The chart below shows the relative HR% and BA (compared to the average non-pitcher in their league) for the two players through three ages: first, through age 31 which is the period that Aaron was in Milwaukee and focused on being more of a high average hitter; second, ages 32-35 which are Aaron’s first four years in Atlanta, and third, ages 36-39, the ages when Barry’s performance had such a ridiculous surge.


 

Hank Aaron

HR/AB

BA

Barry Bonds

HR/AB

BA

Thru age 31

201%

+.054

Thru age 31

 238%

+.020

Ages 32-35

300%

+.034

Ages 32-35

 259%

+.021

Ages 36-39

355%

+.037

Ages 36-39

 385%

+.081

Difference

+55%

+.003

Difference

+126%

+.060

Note how in the Milwaukee years that Aaron did not really have a gigantic HR rate and how he was at that time focusing more on batting average, hitting 54 points above the norm. Then moving to Atlanta, his HR rate rockets upward – partly from it being an easier HR park, and partly from his being willing to sacrifice about 20 points of batting average to hit for more power.

 

The more meaningful look at Aaron’s late-30s surge is the comparison to just that middle section, his earlier years in Atlanta. Looking at it this way, we can see that Aaron did age with unusual grace in that period, but it is nothing at all like what Bonds did. In this more realistic light that description of “almost the same” now seems ludicrous. Bonds has a much bigger leap forward in his HR power and is also doing it while becoming a far better hitter for batting average. This not only is not comparable to what happened in Aaron’s career. It is not comparable to any player, period. It is literally unprecedented in the whole history of the game.

 

The New York Times article also heavily featured comments from retired sabermetrician Eric Walker on a study he did that suggests steroids do not significantly impact on baseball performance. Eric was working under the theory that if steroids had such an impact, the place it would be most visible is in “Power Factor” (PF) which is total bases per hit. He found that with the exception of a small blip in 1993-94, which he attributed to a likely change in the manufacture of baseballs, that PF “… since 1980 has remained essentially flat.”

 

But the flaw of this analysis is readily apparent in the article’s explanation of Walker’s focus on the PF, which is that “… any added strength hitters get from steroids would not help them make solid contact with the ball, but only hit it farther when then do.” Making it clearer that this interpretation is an accurate view of Walker’s reasoning, the article directly quotes him as saying: “There is no long-term uptrend in pure power. Nothing to indicate that a gradual change … in steroid use affected how far balls were hit – when they were hit in the first place.” [emphasis added]

 

Does that make sense to you? He is essentially saying that strength does not impact on the number of hits you get, but only influences how far they go. Have you ever even heard a major leaguer or batting coach express a theory saying that strength is not a factor in the ability to make solid contact? In your own hitting experience would you say there is no difference in your ability to make good solid contact between times you are feeling strong and when you are feeling weak and tired? Or to put it another way, did Ted Williams do over 100,000 finger-tip pushups during his career simply to help himself swing harder, or did he do it to help himself both swing hard and command his swing?

 

But let’s set aside for a moment this notion that strength does not influence the ability to make solid contact. Even if your frequency of “solid contact” remains the same, would it not make sense that hitting the ball harder would also increase your chances of some batted balls becoming singles rather than outs, and and not just turn existing singles into extra-base hits? Is the average batting champion really no stronger in his swing than the average hitter of the era? If you go through the 134 players who have won a major league batting title, you’ll quickly say, “No, that is not true.” There are certainly exceptions along the line of Matty Alou, but batting champions are – on average – bigger than the average player of their era, which suggests greater strength in their swing, and also their power percentages are higher than the average hitter of their era. (Power percentage is simply slugging percentage devoid of batting average. It takes away the first base of each hit, so a single is zero, a double is one, a triple is two, and a home run is three.)

 

Barry Bonds is not the only player who went through a radical body change suggestive of steroids that led not to just a boost in power but also a boost in batting average as well. While there is no hard evidence that Bret Boone was “juicing,” I’ve never met a personal observer of his play who did not believe that Boone’s physique was significantly chemically enhanced by age 32. But even if you want to believe the fairy tale that he managed to achieve that physique naturally, the point would still exist that he was physically bigger and stronger. In his first three years with the new physique he not only set career highs in his power numbers, he recorded 3 of his top 4 seasons in batting average.

 

We know by Ken Caminiti's own admission that he was an extremely heavy user of steroids when he hit his career high .326. Sammy Sosa's top three batting averages all come from his steroids period – or his “strength period” if you prefer. We know Miguel Tejada was purchasing steroids from Adam Piatt in early 2003, and by 2004 he was hitting a career-high .311, followed by .304 and then a new career-high of .330.

 

And because most of the focus on Bonds was related to HR records, it is worth coming back to his case to help folks see that his gains in batting average after he began using PEDs are absolutely unique in the history of the game. The year he hit 73 homers, the 36-year-old finished seventh in the batting race, matching his previous best. The next year, at age 37, he took the batting title with a massive lead of 32 points. He remains the oldest first-time batting champion in the history of the major leagues. The next year he finished 3rd, and then in 2004, at age 39, he unseated Ted Williams as the oldest batting champion in history. The idea of a player who had never finished higher than 7th in the batting race through age 36 then taking two batting titles at ages 37 and 39 is in many ways as remarkable as Bonds’ awesome power display in his steroid years. It just didn’t get as much ink.

 

BA relative to LG non-pitchers

Age 36-39

Thru age 35

1-Ted Williams

+.090

+.076

2-Barry Bonds

+.081

+.023 

3-Tony Gwynn

+.077

+.071

4-Nap LaJoie

+.063

+.077

5-Eddie Collins

+.056

+.063

6-Cap Anson

+.054

+.083

7-Ty Cobb

+.053

+.107

8t-Honus Wagner

+.050

+.076

8t-Zack Wheat

+.050

+.039 

8t-Paul Molitor

+.050

+.040

 Through age 35, Barry’s career batting average was .289, and then suddenly his batting average for ages 36-39 is .349. Relative to the average non-pitcher in the league, Ted Williams is the only player in the whole history of the game to do better in batting average at that advanced age. But the really interesting comparison is to look at how the rest of the top ten did relative to the league in their prior career. Other than Bonds, in their earlier career they averaged 70 points above the other hitters in their league and none was lower than +39 points. Yet Bonds’ batting average was just 23 points above the norm for his prior career.

 

Very few hitters have ever improved their relative batting average in their late 30s. For over 30 years Hall of Famer Zack Wheat held the record for that kind of improvement, and it was just an 11-point gain. When Ted Williams finally passed him, he moved the mark up only another 3 points. And then the chemically strengthened Bonds completely dwarfed their accomplishments with an astounding 58-point gain.

 

Bonds

Singles per (AB-XBH)

Thru age 35

.177

Age 36-39

.207

And to directly answer Eric Walker’s faulty notion that added strength doesn’t produce added singles but only increases the distance of one’s hits, take a look at the change in Bonds’ rate of singles per at-bat that did not result in an extra-base hit.

 

Granted, you are not going to see that in every steroids case. Some of those using steroids are looking to solely be better power-hitters and will sacrifice some ability to hit for average to hit for more power. But you actually do find a surprising increase in the ability to hit singles among many of the players linked to strength gained through steroid use, including Ken Caminiti, Bret Boone, Sammy Sosa, and Miguel Tejada.

 

stitch line

 

Beyond the impact of PEDs on power and hitting for average, we should also consider their influence on durability. That only makes sense as many PEDs, especially steroids, help players build strength by enabling them to work harder in their workouts and to recover faster. As I noted in an earlier column, the players who are testing positive for steroids tend to be overrepresented at the positions where players have to worry most about fatigue and physical breakdowns: catcher and pitcher.

 

I find it interesting that the most significant statistical change in Alex Rodriguez’s three years of light steroid use is in the games played column. The previous five seasons that A-Rod was a regular shortstop, his games played went 146, 141, 161, 129, 148 (average 145). Then during his three years using steroids, he missed one stinking game (162, 162, 161)!

 

When Miguel Tejada was acquiring steroids and likely using them, he was the new ironman of the game, putting up the longest consecutive playing streak since Cal Ripken.

 

If you haven’t noticed, Ivan “Pudge” Rodriguez has caught far more games then any other catcher has managed to do through the same age. He is miles ahead of where Carlton Fisk was at the same age, and he has a good chance this very next season to break Fisk’s record for games caught in a career. Ivan has been linked to the use of PEDs more than any other catcher. He was prominently named by Jose Canseco as a player using steroids, including claims by Canseco that he personally injected Ivan with steroids. The change in body type was certainly there, and as testing made it tougher to use many forms of PEDs, Rodriguez gradually began to shrink in size which he weakly explained was due to his belief that he would play better at a lighter weight. In a recent AP interview Ivan sounded very much like a player who wants to come clean, but can’t quite do it. When asked if he is on the list of players who tested positive in 2003, he replied, “Only God knows.” Asked to comment on A-Rod’s claim that the culture of the game was different back then, Ivan said, “It happened and everybody has to move forward.”

 

From the mailbag: In March of 2004, … Gene Orza [of the Players Union] … said, “I have no doubt that [steroids] are not worse than cigarettes.” Care to comment.

 

Sure, my comment is that I do have a doubt.

 

And I assume the FDA also has a doubt, which is why steroids are a controlled substance and illegal to possess or use without a valid prescription.

 

I would also say that even if steroids were no more harmful than smoking a pack of cigarettes a day, I would argue that players should be allowed to compete on a level playing field without taking on the risk of smoking a pack of cigarettes a day.

 

But this brings up an interesting question as we try to feel our way to a context for evaluating players we think were chemically enhanced. To be completely fair, don’t we also have to consider that there can also be a negative impact from the use of PEDs. Prolonged, heavy use of steroids is linked to a higher incidence of certain types of injuries that can sharply curtail a player’s performance, and even end a career -- in particular setting off tendinitis and degenerative conditions in major joints.

 

You remember the hip problem that ended Bo Jackson’s career? That type of injury is associated with steroid use. When his avascular necrosis was diagnosed, an orthopedic surgeon shared his opinion that he immediately suspected steroid abuse. Same with the degenerative hip condition that hampered and eventually ended Albert Belle’s career. And also the degenerative knee condition that suddenly shot down the career of Mo Vaughn. (While I have no clue if Belle was using PEDs, there is little doubt Vaughn was. The Mitchell report cites evidence of Vaughn purchasing PEDs back in 2001, and some believe that, like Mark McGwire, Vaughn used the synthetic steroid androstenedione when it was still legal.)

 

Mark McGwire’s problems with the connective tissue at the bottom of both his feet (plantar fascia) is something he explained away as a genetic weakness, but it, too, is a physical problem linked to abuse of PEDs. Tearing of the plantar fascia is a fairly rare injury, but another player from the steroids culture in Oakland, Geronimo Berroa, was disabled with the exact same injury in 1998. Berroa was named in a federal investigation for use of anabolic steroids through the sworn testimony of former pitcher Jason Grimsley. A backup catcher named Gary Bennett provided another rare case of a torn plantar fascia, and he not only ended up being named in the Mitchell report for using PEDs, he came forward to say, “As far as the report is concerned to me, it’s accurate.”

 

And of course, for some of the bulkiest players, the excessive weight they carry relative to their frames is hard on their knees. Three of the heaviest, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, and Mo Vaughn, all ended up with serious knee problems. And finally there is the impact on the player’s mental well being. I’m not so much talking about “roid-rage,” although that raises the likelihood of events that can hinder a career as well. I’m talking about difficult withdrawal symptoms when cycling off steroids or when quitting or switching to something else (hopefully legal and less harmful). Amphetamines are more addictive in the short-term, but I’m told that steroids are as addictive or more addictive in the long-term, and can result in serious withdrawal symptoms that are “… likely greater if you have been taking dosages not related to correcting a medical condition.” (At Alex Rodriguez’s press conference, a father showed up whose son had killed himself during a depression that was considered a withdrawal symptom from his former heavy use of steroids.)


 

We downplay the negative impact of PEDs on player performance because we don’t want to cut any breaks for “cheaters,” but if we are trying to better understand the context of the steroids era and how their use potentially affected and still affects the records, it would be defeating and dishonest not to acknowledge the reality that PEDs can also end up hurting a player’s career. Even more important, talking about that realistically could be a deterrent for a young athlete on the fence about experimenting with PEDs.

 

Even as our understanding of the influence of PEDs grows, our assessments of how PEDs affected individual careers is never going to be more than loosely based opinion. There are just too many different ways for the elements to weave together. But I think we can form reasonable opinions such as saying that players like Ivan Rodriguez, Roger Clemens, and Barry Bonds were having and would have continued to have Hall of Fame careers without PEDs. 

 

batdivide

 

From the mailbag: If performance enhancing drugs were such a big part of these player’s careers, why did they continue to put up great numbers when they were finally being tested and came up clean? In 2004 Sammy Sosa was still a big HR hitter and Barry Bonds had the greatest season ever for a player his age. Yet they both passed all their drug tests.

 

For one thing, it is not like turning a light switch on and off. Particularly for those who are using PEDs to help build up their bulk and strength, it takes awhile to reach the peak, and it also takes awhile to come down. Guys like Sosa, Bonds, and Ivan Rodriguez did lose some of their added bulk, but it did not happen overnight. Shoot, even in 2005 Sammy Sosa was still rather grotesquely huge. But there is no denying his performance started to slide as the testing began, and in 2004 he was also sacrificing batting average to try and keep his power numbers up. Admittedly part of his decline was simply the aging process, but that’s a pretty steep decline.

 

Sammy Sosa

BA

Pow%

HR%

Age

2002-no test

+.022

+.149

306%

33

2003-anonymous test

+.010

+.112

250%

34

2004-penalty test

-.017

+.097

219%

35

2005-penalty test

-.047

+.002

107%

36

2006-out of baseball

 

 

 

37

2007-penalty test

-.019

+.063

175%

38

In Bonds’ case, keep in mind he was reportedly using designer drugs that were supposed to be difficult to detect in a urine test. And it was not an ideal testing situation in many other ways. While random, a player could only be tested once a season. If you were a steroids user, you could cycle off, wait to be tested, and then feel free to start another cycle of whatever could avoid detection by next April. And the Players’ Union successfully kept out blood testing, which totally ruled out testing for HGH which cannot be detected in a urine test. Incidentally there are some mild steroids out there that a player could start using after the season ended, get some “benefit” from that use and still be able to cycle off early enough to have a clean test on the opening day of the next season. It is a far from perfect system, and anyone who thinks we have a 90% clean player population is fooling themselves.

 

 

 The Diamond Appraised baseball column is dedicated to Eddie Robinson