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________________
That’s #500 and the ballgame! Jim Thome: In a HR trot toward the Hall of Fame? _______________ “
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Memories of Jim Thome,
Newest Member of the 500 HR Club (Sept-17-2007) Yesterday Jim Thome became
the 23rd player to hit 500 homers and the first to do it with a
walk-off blast. It’s the kind of occasion that stirs old personal stories
about the player. People who saw him play in the minor leagues are remembering
that today. There were 14,627 fans who attended the game where Thome hit his first major league home run, and a
lot of them are reminding themselves and others that, “You know, I was there
for his first homer.” Early in the 1993 season, when I was working for the Dodgers, GM Fred also went through a second list which was a
group of untouchables that Without
question, of the First,
as a prospect Mike Busch [Dodger 3rd base prospect] has
high top end potential but also has a very high risk that he won't ever be
worth a damn. This a guy who hit .238 in a hitter's
park in AA and then hit .200 in the Arizona League. We need another third base
option in our future. Second,
we are extremely right-handed in our long term future. Karros, Piazza, Mondesi, Busch, and Ashley are all righties. We need a
significant hitting prospect from the left side. Third,
Thome is very young and very talented. He is two
years younger than Busch and slightly younger than Ashley, yet he is closer
to being a major leaguer than either one …. Thome
has already hit extremely well at both AA and AAA, which neither of the
others has done. In his minor league career Thome
now has a .311 BA with a .408 on-base percentage and a .469 slugging
percentage. Basically I have just been waiting to see him reduce his
strikeout rate in a productive manner. That is, he won't reduce his Ks by
reducing his power, but will do it while raising his power (and possibly his
average and walks as well.) Fourth,
the early signs at Fifth,
the Indians, particularly Mike Hargrove, are about as down on Thome as they ever will be. That isn't to say they don't
like him, but they were not enthused with his performance last year when they
thought he was ready. I didn't think
he was ready, and he was further handicapped by two significant short-term
injuries (strained wrist ligaments and a shoulder strain.) With their
pitching shortage, and with their present 3rd base situation being very
productive, we are lucky to be in a position where we can offer them McDowell
for a third base prospect like Thome. Just
a note on Thome's power potential. There have been
a lot of hitters who made significant strides in their power in their mid to
late 20s. Thome strikes me as that kind of hitter.
Besides the potential to hit for a good average, decent power, and get on
base a lot, I could see a scenario where he'll eventually be poking over 20
homers to go with it, and that will make him an All-Star. He is a strong kid,
6-4, 220. I've seen him swat at least one prodigious 2nd deck homer. Fred called me shortly after getting that report and
asked if I really believed that Thome would develop
20-homer power. That sounds like such a funny question today, but viewed
in context, Fred's question was quite reasonable. Going into the 1993 season Thome had hit just 9 homers in his 493 ABs at AA and AAA,
and in his major league trials he had hit just 3 homers in 215 ABs. That’s just 12 homers in his 700 ABs above A-ball. I
reiterated my belief that Thome had good power
potential, and pointed out I expected better than 20-homer power. Now 20+ homers was a lot to talk about back then, which was before the
modern home run explosion. In the most recent full season at that time, 1992,
the HR% was 2.13%. We crossed the 3% mark in 1998 and have averaged 3.17%
since, or about a 50% gain. In modern terms I was essentially saying I
expected Thome to develop 30+ home run power. As optimistic as my analysis was, I had no clue we
were talking about someone who would develop the monster power he has shown
in his career. If I don't address this, I'm sure to get questions on it. I don't know
what happened to that possible deal of McDowell for Thome
as a young minor leaguer (not quite 22 when I wrote that report). The
fact he was not on the list of players recommended to Fred meant my
recommendation would likely be swimming upstream. But it is also quite
possible that Thome's strong start at AAA convinced
the Indians to move him to their untouchable list before Fred could make the
deal.
It's interesting to remember today that Jim started off as a third
baseman, and he wasn't a donkey over there. It is true he was
very error prone in his first few big league trials making 19
errors in just 67 games, but after I wrote that report he played
425 games at 3rd base in the majors and his fielding percentage was only
3-4 points below the league average, and for his career at 3rd base he
fielded more chances cleanly per game than the league average. From 1994
to 1996 he was Would Thome have been as great an offensive
player staying at 3rd base? Maybe not, but it is far from a given that there
would have been much difference. He was not overmatched by the position. He
experienced three breakthrough periods in his development as a hitter and all
three came during his time as a third baseman. His two highest batting
averages came when he was a regular third baseman (1995-96), and his first
big HR year came as a third baseman. In fact, his .612 slugging percentage
in 1996 remained his career high for another four years after he moved
to first base. Relative to the league, that 1996 It used to be that 500 homers was a lock for the Hall of Fame, but
given the offensive inflation that has taken place during Thome’s
career, that is starting to lose its “automatic” status. If Thome announced his retirement tomorrow, it would be
possible to make an argument that he is not a Hall of Famer. But he is
close to being a sure thing, still playing every day, and he just turned 37 a
few weeks ago. I certainly think of him as a Hall of Famer. |
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The Diamond Appraised baseball column is dedicated to
Eddie Robinson |
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